CHICAGO, Oct. 08, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CHICAGO, October 8, 2026 — U.S. consumers are entering the 2026 holiday season with a more intentional approach to spending, balancing budget pressures with a continued desire to celebrate, according to the 2026 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions Study from Circana, LLC. The study reveals that while shoppers remain focused on value, they are also seeking gifts and experiences that deliver personal relevance, emotional connection, and lasting impact.
The survey of 3,534 U.S. consumers found holiday spending is expected to average $779, compared to $796 last year. While financial pressures continue to influence purchasing decisions, consumers remain committed to holiday celebrations, with more than one in five planning to spend more than $1,000 this season. As a result, Circana expects fourth-quarter holiday spending in 2026 to range from a 1% decline to a 2.5% increase versus 2025, reflecting the balance between ongoing economic pressures and resilient holiday demand.
“Consumers are not abandoning holiday spending, they’re becoming increasingly purposeful about where and how they spend,” said Kiara Barrett, head of global thought leadership at Circana. “Throughout 2026, we’ve seen shoppers shift toward a new definition of value, one that extends beyond price alone. While affordability remains important, consumers continue to prioritize purchases that create meaningful moments, strengthen personal connections, improve everyday life, or simply deliver a sense of joy.”
Holiday Shoppers Continue to Seek Value
Value remains the defining theme heading into the holiday season, as grocery costs and anticipated price increases continue to shape shopping decisions. While most consumers plan to spend about the same as they did last year, 29% expect to spend more, with more than half of those shoppers citing higher prices as the primary driver. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of consumers expect to adopt money-saving behaviors, including purchasing more promotional items, seeking deals, buying store brands, and scaling back in discretionary categories.
The findings align with broader retail trends observed by Circana throughout 2026, as consumers become more selective in where they allocate their dollars. While overall retail demand has remained soft, shoppers continue to prioritize purchases and experiences they perceive as truly worth it.
Consumers Reallocate Spending Closer to Home
Consumers are finding new ways to balance budgets, time, and traditions. Shoppers are increasingly seeking efficient ways to host, embracing prepared foods, catered offerings, and retailer-supported meal solutions that add convenience to their at-home holiday celebrations. Holiday budgets are being reprioritized, rather than reduced. More than one-third of shoppers say they are canceling or delaying holiday travel due to higher costs, while others are reallocating dollars toward at-home celebrations, entertaining, and gift-giving. Consumers remain committed to celebrating the season, but are looking for ways to do so closer to home and with greater control over costs.
Meaning Matters More Than Ever
Despite increased scrutiny around spending, consumers continue to protect gifting occasions and prioritize purchases that carry emotional relevance. Earlier 2026 gifting holidays demonstrated that shoppers are actively seeking gifts that promote wellness, support hobbies and fandoms, create experiences, or add meaningful value to everyday life.
Holiday shoppers are increasingly gravitating toward categories that blend practicality and personal significance, including wellness products, personalized gifts, collectibles, experiences, connected home products, and other items that foster connection and self-expression.
“Consumers are redefining what makes a gift valuable,” Barrett said. “The winners this holiday season will be brands that help shoppers express care, connection, identity, and purpose — products with emotional relevance have the greatest opportunity to stand out.”
Earlier Shopping and Smarter Promotions
More than half of consumers plan to begin holiday shopping before Thanksgiving, while Thanksgiving weekend, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday remain key deal-driving events.
However, Circana’s broader retail analysis suggests that promotions alone may not be enough to drive demand. Consumers increasingly expect value and relevance throughout their shopping journey, rewarding retailers that deliver the right products, offers, and experiences at the right moments.
Social Media and AI Continue to Influence Holiday Purchase Decisions
Digital channels continue to shape holiday discovery and purchasing behavior. More than half (57%) of consumers say they are likely to purchase a product after seeing it on social media, rising to 82% among Gen Z consumers. While retailers and brands remain the most influential sources of holiday purchase inspiration on social media, consumers are increasingly turning to a broader range of digital tools and content to guide their shopping decisions. Product-review videos influence purchasing decisions for nearly seven in 10 viewers, and consumers who have used AI shopping tools report strong openness to AI-driven recommendations.
These findings reflect growing consumer reliance on digital discovery platforms to identify products that align with their interests, values, and shopping goals.
Opportunities for Retailers and Brands
As consumers continue to navigate economic uncertainty, Circana’s research points to a clear opportunity for retailers and manufacturers: Success will come from balancing affordability with relevance, personalization, convenience, and experiences that consumers perceive as worthwhile. Shoppers may be spending more selectively, but they continue to invest in the people, products, and moments that matter most to them.
“Consumers are becoming far more purposeful about discretionary spending, which means successful brands will need to move beyond competing on price alone,” adds Barrett. “While economic pressures are creating a more selective shopper, they are not eliminating demand. The opportunity this holiday season lies in connecting with consumers where inspiration and discovery are happening, from social platforms to AI assistants, while delivering the value, relevance, and confidence shoppers need to justify their purchases.”
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About Circana
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set, and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid an increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.
Janine Marshall Circana janine.marshall@circana.com