CHICAGO, Aug. 11, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Numerator, a consumer data and technology company, released its July 2026 Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI), an advance read on consumer inflation based on verified household purchases. The CGPI measures the prices consumers actually pay for everyday goods and provides context for how inflation differs across consumer groups and product sectors, accounting for real-time changes in purchasing behavior, including brand and retailer switching. According to Numerator, prices for everyday household purchases decreased 0.4% in July following a 0.7% increase in June and a 0.5% increase in May. In July, prices for everyday goods are up 2.6% versus a year ago, down from 3.4% in June.
Additional key findings from Numerator’s July CGPI:
- Prices for everyday household goods decelerated in July 2026, decreasing by 0.4% after a 0.7% increase in June 2026.
- Prices for everyday household goods are up 2.6% over the past 12 months as annual inflation cooled in July following three consecutive months of acceleration.
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers continue to experience higher levels of inflation for everyday household goods, as prices have increased 35.1% and 39.0%, respectively, for those groups since January 2018 vs. the 33.2% national average.
- Low-income and Gen Z consumers are experiencing higher inflation in part because they spend more on quick-service restaurants than the average consumer. Quick-service restaurant prices have increased 53.9% since January 2018, well above the 33.2% rise across the overall consumer basket.
- Consumers in the South census region experienced higher levels of inflation since 2018, however that gap closed in July.
- Inflation may be cooling, but consumers aren't feeling much relief. In Numerator's July 2026 Economic Sentiment Tracker of over 2,000 U.S. consumers, 39% identified rising prices as their top concern for the coming year, nearly matching the record high reached in May 2026. Numerator has tracked consumer sentiment and financial outlook monthly since January 2024.
Similar to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Numerator CGPI tracks prices and changes in consumer purchases over time. The data cover approximately 20% of the consumption basket captured in the overall PCE price index, and closely track the PCE Food & Beverage index, offering a reliable signal of retail price changes experienced by U.S. consumers.
“Consumers are adapting as prices change,” said Paul Stanley, Senior Economist at Numerator. “By trading down what they buy and where they shop, they reduced the inflation they experienced by 0.4 percentage points last month compared with making the same purchases they did a year ago—the largest impact we've seen in more than a year. As inflation and gas prices cooled in July, consumers didn't need to make as many tradeoffs to manage rising costs.”
For a methodology description of the Numerator CGPI, or to download the data charts, visit numerator.com/inflation.
DISCLAIMER
The Numerator Inflation Report has been prepared for informational purposes only, without any express or implied warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained in or provided from or through this report is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other advice. Numerator shall have no liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage resulting from the use of or reliance on the above-mentioned information.
METHODOLOGY
Numerator CGPI
Numerator’s consumer inflation measure is constructed using both base-period and current-period quantity weights to combine item prices, an approach that shares structural similarities with the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' PCE Price Index. Numerator's Consumer Goods Price Index index reflects what consumers actually purchased in each period, using verified household transactions rather than fixed baskets or survey-modeled weights used by traditional inflation measures.
The index is calculated from an average of approximately 7 million verified, item-level transactions each month provided by a panel of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households. These data include purchases across categories such as grocery, household goods, and health and beauty. Since the index uses receipt-level purchase data, Numerator’s CGPI reflects the actual prices consumers pay after promotions, coupons, and loyalty discounts are applied. The data capture changes in consumer purchasing behavior when prices change, including brand switching, downsizing, and shifts in where consumers buy in real-time.
Values are aggregated monthly to produce index levels and month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, providing a current view of inflation trends that can be viewed across demographic groups to explain how inflation is experienced across different segments of the population.
The Numerator CGPI’s year-over-year inflation measure has a 0.93 correlation with the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
Numerator Economic Sentiment Tracker
The Numerator Economic Sentiment Tracker provides a monthly view of consumer confidence, spending & saving considerations, and future financial outlook. The tracker is powered by a continuous survey to our consumer panel, capturing over 2,000 responses each month since its launch in January 2024.
About Numerator
Numerator is a data company transforming how consumers and markets are understood. Powered by advanced technology and proprietary, zero-party purchase and survey data from more than one million households, Numerator provides visibility into consumer behavior and attitudes across consumer goods, retail, restaurants, tech and media, management consulting, institutional investors, and the public sector. Headquartered in Chicago, Numerator drives decisions at the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies in more than 50 countries.
Bob Richter Numerator 212-802-8588 press@numerator.com