Hong Kong, HONG KONG, March 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- J. Rotbart & Co., a leading independent precious metals dealer and wealth preservation specialist, today issues this statement for investors watching gold's sharp correction during the Iran–US war: “The market forces depressing gold's price over the last 3 weeks must inevitably drive gold’s next significant advance, as they have during every major energy crisis we’ve experienced before. That’s why our projections for gold at + U$ 5,605 at year end have not been revised.”
Joshua Rotbart - Managing Partner at J.Rotbart & Co.
The Correction in Context
Gold prices have fallen approximately 23% from the all-time high of $5,602 per ounce it set on 28 January 2026, to around $4,320 today. Since the Iran -US war began on 28 February, it has declined about 14% from pre-war levels. On the face of it, these losses may look counterintuitive: Why is gold, the ultimate safe-haven asset, losing value while global uncertainty is rising?
The culprit is not failing confidence in gold. It is a specific, well-understood mechanism: the oil price shock triggered by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised inflation expectations sharply, causing markets to reprice Federal Reserve policy from rate cuts to a prolonged pause. Higher expected rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. Combined with a 2% rise in the US dollar since hostilities began, this has created a textbook, temporary headwind for bullion.
The word "temporary" is doing real work in that sentence. Every major episode in which an energy shock has driven this same monetary repricing has ultimately resolved in gold's favour, once the inflationary reality set in and growth began to slow. That resolution is already underway.
The Bullish Case Has Not Changed
The structural drivers that took gold from $2,625 to $5,602 in 14 months remain fully intact:
- Institutional targets are unchanged. Banks and institutional research houses are targeting $6,000–$6,300 per ounce by year-end 2026, with the most bullish forecasts exceeding $6,300. Not one major institution has revised its long-term gold outlook downward as a result of the current correction.
- Energy shocks historically precede gold advances. The 1973 oil crisis ultimately drove gold from $100 to over $800. The 1990 Gulf War was followed by a sustained multi-year gold rally. Energy-driven inflation, once embedded in the economy, inevitably erodes confidence in fiat currencies and drives gold prices higher.
- Central bank demand shows no signs of slowing. A 2026 survey found that 95% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase further. Structural sovereign buying does not pause for a geopolitical correction.
- The war itself is a long-term catalyst. Estimates are the Iran war is depressing first-half 2026 global GDP growth by 0.6% annualised and will push global CPI more than 1% higher. This environment of slowing growth and rising inflation is precisely the one in which gold has historically performed best.
The Opportunity
Markets rarely offer truly advantageous entry. Thus 23% correction may well be one of them. Joshua Rotbart, Managing Partner at J. Rotbart & Co. says: “Gold’s long-term trajectory is as clear as ever. The rate expectations and stronger dollar that are temporarily holding it back, are transient, but the inflation, sovereign debt, and geopolitical instability that are driving it higher, are with us to stay. Patient investors will be rewarded for the discipline they show right now."
J. Rotbart & Co. invites investors to discuss how a strategic allocation to physical gold, structured for long-term wealth preservation and jurisdictional resilience, can be implemented efficiently and securely.
About J. Rotbart & Co.
J. Rotbart & Co. is an international precious-metals consultancy specializing in the acquisition, secure storage, and structuring of physical bullion for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth clients. Founded in 2016, the firm operates offices in Singapore, Hong Kong, Bangkok, Tel Aviv, and the Philippines, and works with a global network of independently operated vaults across key financial jurisdictions. J. Rotbart & Co. advises private investors, family offices, and institutions seeking long-term capital protection through allocated, fully segregated precious-metal ownership.
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